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　　从最近一段时间的紧张局势来看，埃及是趋于分裂还是重现生机还真不好说，而这个国家接下来的走向，对于美国和美国在这个地区所扮演的角色，都有着极大的影响。

　　如果在这之前美国人还不关心埃及国内局势的话，那么现在我们必须注意了。埃及不单只是一个非洲国家，他还是美国在阿拉伯地区的最亲密的同盟伙伴，而且是第一个同以色列握手言和的邻国。无论制衡伊朗还是打击恐怖主义，美国都需要通过依赖埃及的穆巴拉克政府，确保在中东地区的长远利益。

　　然而事实摆在眼前，离穆巴拉克政府倒台的日子屈指可数了。过去几周，埃及人纷纷涌上街头要求推翻穆巴拉克政府组建新政府，实质上，他们对穆巴拉克政府的统治已非常不满，渴求全新的生活方式。处于无政府状态下的埃及，对于阿拉伯世界来说能够意味着安全和稳定吗？现在，西方的政客们普遍担心埃及会成为下一个伊朗，从一个资本主义国家的盟国演变为以伊斯兰教为信仰的阿拉伯国家，或者是人们民主选举出一个反以色列的政府，重新界定1979年的大卫营协议，那样一来，波斯湾附近那些富产石油的国家就要处于这个强悍民族的觊觎之下了，美国在这里贯彻的石油外交国策，甚至全球经济环境都会受到强烈冲击。

　　生死攸关的时刻

　　埃及国内形势不确定性的蔓延，已经给中东和海湾地区的股市带来了连锁反应：油价蹿升，其他经济实体则遭到破坏。尽管埃及总统霍斯尼-穆巴拉克在周二晚上宣布他将不再连任总统一职，但这无法组织他的支持者和反对者们在埃及的大街小巷上发生冲突。

　　对于埃及和美国而言，现在都是极为关键的时刻。不止美国人在这个地区的利益目前处在威胁之中，还包括我们的理想。我们希望看到泛阿拉伯世界完成普遍的民主革命，但这个地区却是真正的“民主例外”世界，美国长期支持的穆巴拉克政府一旦垮台，很可能成为阿拉伯世界推翻独裁获得自由民主的革命大业走向失败的转折点。

　　目前埃及国内危机已经进入尾声阶段，尽管穆巴拉克态度坚决，但数以千计的民众仍然反对他执政到今年9月。目前看来，得到美国1.3亿美元军备援助的埃及军方，将在接下来平息内乱的进程中起到决定性作用，但眼下他们还保持中立态度。

　　而就经济损失而言，埃及政局动荡所带来的影响也波及到了美国。政府武装力量正在寻求办法以叫停民主革命的进程，尽可能在9月的大选前拖延时间，奥巴马政府随后也立刻将穆巴拉克抛弃。直到现在，美国政府的反应和行动都是落后于局势发展的，国务卿希拉里-克林顿在1月25日时还信誓旦旦地说埃及穆巴拉克政府的统治稳固，短短一周过后，这个国家就处于崩溃状态，显然埃及国内过去30年的专制统治已经大大激起了民愤。奥巴马政府还在死撑着，要求埃及民主革命实现有序过渡，然而这与反政府的埃及人明确提出的总统立刻下台的要求相差甚远。如今埃及动乱爆发一周多的时间了，美国政府依然摇摆不定，没弄清到底该怎么收拾残局。

　　接下来会发生什么？

　　埃及是人口最为稠密，同时也最具影响力的阿拉伯国家之一，它有潜力成为阿拉伯世界民主革命完成的一个成功范本，当然也可能成为失败的反例。如果是前者，那奥巴马政府会因为在现阶段所采取的强硬和坚持不动摇的态度最终取得成功而被铭记；可如果埃及的民主革命走上相反方向，那么奥巴马2009年于开罗所发表的著名的演中许诺的“埃及民主全新的开始”，就将正式宣告结束。幸运的是，美国的决策者们还有时间向穆巴拉克施加压力，要求他即刻辞职以平息民愤，有意思的是，埃及街道上的反对者们还故意用英文写下标语，请求美国敦促穆巴拉克立即下台。

　　如今全世界都在关注埃及局势的进展，埃及政局的稳定和埃及人民主自由的梦想全都悬而未决，美国人不该关心埃及局势的进展吗？哪怕是为了那渴望自由的8000万埃及人民，哪怕是为了美国在阿拉伯世界的利益，哪怕是为了中东地区政局的和平稳定，哪怕是仅仅为了满足我们的良知，希望那个距离我们非常遥远的国家不再充斥着流血杀戮。(正朗)

　　Why you should care about Egypt

　　Consumed by days of tense protests, Egypt seems to be both coming alive and coming apart. What happens there in the days ahead will have enormous consequences for the U.S. and its role in the Middle East。

　　If Americans don't care yet, they should. Egypt, after all, is not just any country. It is America's closest Arab ally and the first to have made peace with Israel. The U.S. has depended on the Mubarak regime to advance a number of key security interests, from countering Iran to combating terrorism。

　　It's clear now that the regime's days are numbered. Over the past week, the streets of Egypt have been flooded with people demanding a new government and, in essence, a new way of life. What will a political vacuum in Egypt mean for security and stability in the broader Arab world? Western officials have expressed fears of another Iran, with a Western ally being lost to Islamic fundamentalism. Perhaps a democratically elected government, reflecting widespread anti-Israel feeling, will reassess the Camp David peace treaty of 1979. And what about the oil-rich Persian Gulf countries? If they, too, find themselves embroiled in a struggle with restive populations, then the free flow of oil — long a top U.S. foreign policy priority — could be undermined, with drastic consequences for the global economy。

　　A critical moment

　　The growing uncertainty has led to a regional stock market crash, rising oil prices and other economic damage. Though President Hosni Mubarak's announcement Tuesday night that he won't seek re-election momentarily calmed things, clashes between his supporters and the crowds in the streets ushered in new unease。

　　This is a critical moment not just for Egypt but also for America. Not only are our interests at stake, but so are our ideals. We might be seeing a pan-Arab democratic revolution. But because of its longtime support of Mubarak, the U.S. faces the hard task of midwifing a transition while staying arm's-length from the waning regime. The Arab world had always been the "democratic exception," an authoritarian region in a world of growing freedom and democracy. Now events in Egypt could mark a definitive turning point。

　　The crisis has entered its final phase. Though Mubarak has blinked, his insistence on hanging on until the September elections has been rejected by the thousands in the streets. The military, which receives $1.3 billion in U.S. military assistance, is poised to play kingmaker in this next phase but, so far, has stayed largely neutral。

　　Considering the economic cost, as well as the cost in U.S. credibility, this paralysis cannot continue indefinitely. Regime forces are looking for ways to hold the revolution back, to run out the clock until the elections. The Obama administration, then, has the leverage to push Mubarak more quickly out the door. Up until now, though, the U.S. has been behind the curve. On Jan. 25, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton affirmed that the Egyptian regime was "stable." A week later, the country is crumbling. This, presumably, is what happens after three decades of pent-up anger over the indignities of autocratic rule. The Obama administration has since toughened its tone, calling for an "orderly transition," but hasn't gone as far as supporting the protesters' one key demand: that Mubarak quit now. More than a week into the crisis, the U.S. is still hedging its bets。

　　What's next

　　Egypt, as the most populous and influential Arab nation, has the potential — with the help of the international community — to become a model for the region. It also has the potential to become a model for something altogether more frightening: a failed state unable to control its own people or territory. If Egypt moves toward democracy, the Obama administration will be remembered for resisting until the final moments. If Egypt reverts to chaos or refashioned autocracy, it will mark the definitive end of the "new beginning" that Obama promised during his historic Cairo address in 2009. Fortunately for U.S. policymakers, there is still time to pressure Mubarak to step down immediately. The protesters, whose signs are purposely in English, are pleading for such support。

　　Should Americans care? Only if they care about 80 million people who yearn for freedom. Only if they care about U.S. national security interests. Only if they care about a stable Middle East. Only if bloodshed, even in a faraway land, troubles the conscience。

　　The world is watching. Now we will find out just how much the world cares. Egypt's stability — and the freedom of the Egyptian people — hangs in the balance。